Refined Soybean - Commodities Info
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General Characteristics
- Soybeans on crushing and solvent extraction yield soyoil at 18% recovery and soymeal. About 85% is crushed worldwide.
- Soybean and soyoil production of 170-185 and 25-31 million tons account for 55-58% and 25-30% of global oilseed and oil production respectively.
- US, Brazil, Argentina, China, India are the major producers in order of production. In US, India, China crop starts arriving from Aug-Sept, while it starts from Jan-Feb in S. America.
- In the world 55-60, 8-10 and 42-45 million tons of beans, oil and meal are traded annually.
- USA (20-30 million tons), Brazil (12-18 million tons), Argentina (5-10 million tons) are the exporters of beans, while China (18-20 million tons) and EU (15-18 million tons) are the major importers.
- Argentina (3-5 million tons) and Brazil (2-3 million tons) are the major exporters of oil. China (1.5-2.5 million tons) and India (1-2 million tons) are the major importers of oil.
- Crushers, refined oil manufacturers, animal feed manufacturers and farmers are the major stakeholders in the soy value chain worldwide.
Major Refined Soyabean Markets
- Chicago (CBOT), largest soy futures market
- China, where beans and meal are traded at Dalian Commodity Exchange
- Argentina and Brazil FOB determine the physical prices
Indian Scenario
- India produces 5-7 million tons of beans, 1 million ton of oil and 3-5 million tons of soymeal in a normal year.
- With imports, the total oil availability in the country is around 2.5 million tons.
- Madhya Pradesh (3.5-4.5 million tons), Maharashtra, Rajasthan are the major producers of soybean in India.
- The production is highly dependent on the monsoon and fluctuates between years.
- Soy is a Kharif crop, sown in June-July and harvested by September-October. Peak arrivals are from October-November.
- The prices follow the international sentiments and display very high volatility.
India in World Soy Industry
| (Rounded figs.) | India | World | % Share |
|---|
| (In million tons) |
| Annual Seed Production | 6 | 180 | 3 |
| Annual Oil Production | 1 | 30 | 3.3 |
| Annual Oil Imports | 1.5 | 9 | 16.7 |
| Annual Oil Consumption | 2.5 | 30 | 8.3 |
| Annual Meal Production | 3.5 | 130 | 3.5 |
| Annual Meal Exports | 2.5 | 43 | 5.8 |
| Annual Meal Consumption | 1 | 130 | 0.7 |
Daily Price Volatility of Refined Soyoil in India
| Daily Volatility in %< | < 1 | 1 - 3 | > 3 |
| % Occurrence | 81.95 | 17.69 | 0.36 |
Major Trading Centers
Indore, Ujjain, Dewas, Mandsore in Madhya Pradesh, Nagpur in Maharashtra, Kota in Rajasthan are major trading centres.
Market Influencing Factors
- Weather at all the producing centers, domestic and international. The pod bearing period, being the most crucial.
- The area planted, determined by the price of soybean against that of competitive crops, viz., maize, jowar, bajra.
- International price movement, the futures market at CBOT being the major international reference market.
- Pests and diseases.
- The supply-demand and price scenario of competitive oils, viz., palmoil.
- Demand for soymeal from the feed sector and the entire fundamentals of this sector.
- The crush margin between meal, oil and seed
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